Reducing the Parcel VRF Variance

Author: MoonGotchi#1234 GotchiID: 3541 Discourse Thread: https://dao.aavegotchi.com/t/reducing-the-vrf-variance-for-parcels/3069

Problem: The VRF variance for Alchemica under the ground of parcels (0.2 - 1.8 of average) seems very high to me and could lead to some people getting rekt - see the graphic posted on the Discourse Thread.

A very unlucky spacious owner could get less alchemica than a lucky reasonable owner - which is in my opinion very bad UX, especially considering that it was communicated this wouldn’t be possible. Keep in mind that the first round (quarter) will distribute more Alchemica than the rest of them, so losing big in the first round could set someone back by a lot.

Solution: I want to propose lowering the variance to AT LEAST 0.5 - 1.5 if not even 0.75 - 1.25 for the first round (Voting Choice 1). My issue with this very high variance is that people made financial decisions based on the average numbers published before the first auction, making people lose 50-80% of Alchemica value underneath the parcel is terrible UX to me.

Another option suggested by Mori would be to create a binomial distribution with the left tail cut off, so it's possible to win big but impossible to get rekt hard (Voting Choice 2). This results in an average pull of 100, a minimum pull of 60, and a maximum pull of ~800. There's a fairly reasonable chance of winning this top prize, with ~0.02% of parcels being able to achieve this.

Keep in mind:

• There are 9 rounds, so getting rekt in 1 doesn’t mean you’ll always get unlucky (even though you might!)
• There is a VRF roll for every type of Alchemica (FUD, FOMO, ALPHA, KEK), so it’s likely you’ll get good rolls in one and bad rolls in others