[DCP-24] - Launch DappRadar Prediction Markets with RADAR rewards

Summary

BetFolio is a project that specializes in developing engaging crypto-themed prediction markets using API data from prominent providers like Coinmarketcap, Defillama, and LunarCrush. Our platform allows users to participate in risk-free prediction games where they can win tokens without financial risk.

Holders of our NFT pass can place $0 bets/votes on predictions, with the winners splitting a prize pool of tokens provided by BetFolio or our sponsoring partners.

We propose a partnership with DappRadar to co-promote risk-free predictions utilizing DappRadar’s API to derive results, as shown in the examples below:

• “Which Solana dapp will have the highest increase in UAW by April 30th?”

• “Which dapp will have the highest increase in UAW by April 30th?”

• “Which Polygon dapp will have the highest increase in UAW by April 30th?”

• All DappRadar Predictions on BetFolio.

RADAR tokens—awarded through the grant—will be used as the reward in our prize pools for DappRadar predictions. Additionally, holding RADAR tokens will be a prerequisite for participation in these predictions. The aim of this collaboration is to leverage our prediction platform to boost community engagement, drive further utilization of the DappRadar platform, improve discovery of new dApps, and stimulate increased demand for the RADAR token.

Motivation

Our proposal to introduce prediction markets using the DappRadar API is driven by the following motivations:

• Enhance DappRadar’s data platform usage by engaging communities through prediction games in partnership with BetFolio. This partnership not only drives traffic to BetFolio but also funnels users back to DappRadar as they access dapp statistics to make informed predictions.
• Drive additional demand for RADAR tokens by making them necessary to vote on predictions, potentially drawing new purchasers to your community.
• Increase the value of Pro memberships by granting Pro NFT holders exclusive access to prediction games with RADAR rewards and unique insights from these predictions.

Abstract

Project Overview and Historical Performance BetFolio offers a range of predictions, from binary outcomes to multi-option polls, focusing on metrics relevant to web3 communities, projects and influencers. We’ve launched several popular predictions with RADAR tokens as rewards, including the following:

“Which Solana dapp will have the highest increase in UAW by April 30th?”

“Which dapp will have the highest increase in UAW by April 30th?”

“Which Polygon dapp will have the highest increase in UAW by April 30th?”

BetFolio’s current engagement includes over 500 unique wallets and 700 weekly bets/votes. A recent tournament attracted 798 votes from 155 wallets across 7 predictions, each featuring a $50 token prize pool, showcasing the potential engagement level for RADAR-funded prediction games.

How we’re integrating the RADAR Token

Currently BetFolio is integrating RADAR as a reward token in our prediction prize pools for DappRadar predictions. Tokens are evenly split among users who correctly predict outcomes.

We can also require RADAR holdings for participation in predictions, ensuring only users who are invested in the DappRadar ecosystem can benefit from the prediction rewards.

In the future we plan to roll out the capability for RADAR holders to submit prediction ideas, with boosted rewards going to ideators. This will encourage community participation in crafting and voting on DappRadar predictions.

Furthermore, we can make specific predictions accessible only to DappRadar’s PRO NFT holders, providing an additional layer of exclusivity with potentially greater rewards

How we’re using DappRadar’s API

We’ve automated our system using DappRadar’s API to fetch daily and weekly data on the top 100 dapps by unique active wallets (UAW) across various blockchains like Polygon and Solana.

https://apis.dappradar.com/v2/dapps/top/uaw?chain=polygon&range=7d&top=100

https://apis.dappradar.com/v2/dapps/top/uaw?range=7d&top=100

https://apis.dappradar.com/v2/dapps/top/uaw?chain=solana&range=7d&top=100

This data helps us track usage trends and compare growth across different time periods and blockchain ecosystems. Additionally, we analyze transaction numbers and volumes as metrics for further comparison.

Data from prediction results can help identify high-performing dapps and project future trends within specific sectors such as gaming and DeFi. These predictions encourage deeper user engagement by providing insights into less-known dapps and fostering exploration based on historical data and personal preferences.

DappRadar can leverage this information to create detailed reports for investors, project managers, and analysts, helping them identify where market interest is concentrated.

Next Steps

From previous community discussions, we’ve identified the need to develop a framework to calculate the ROI for RADAR giveaways and to establish a pilot program to set a baseline for this metric. Our aim with the grant funding is to execute this pilot through a series of weekly predictions over a six-week period. Here are the details of the proposed pilot:

6 week Pilot:

• 2 DappRadar predictions a week
• Prize pools per prediction: 10k RADAR (winners receive an equal share of the prize pool)
• Participation criteria: Hold 1 valid BetFolio NFT ($3) & 1,000 RADAR (~$7)
• Total budget: 120,000 RADAR
• Predictions will be promoted via Quests on DappRadar (funded by BetFolio) and we would request DappRadar’s support in promoting via your social channels and establishing a dedicated Discord sub-channel to feature new DappRadar predictions.
• The 6 week pilot will be marketed as a tournament, in which the top 3 users with the most wins and earnings will receive a bonus prize: a free BetFolio NFT plus $100 of RADAR funded by us.

Measurable benefits for DappRadar:

• Growth in new wallet ownership of RADAR tokens
• Increase in web traffic and retention for select pages on the DappRadar platform.
• Increase in community engagement on social channels

We anticipate these measurable benefits will form the basis for future KPIs and ROI calculations. We will also commit to share feedback with the community on how the campaign performed after the six weeks so we can evaluate how to improve it moving forward.

Benefits

• Boost consistent usage of DappRadar’s data platform by engaging its communities through prediction games that can spotlight high-performing dapps and anticipate trends in blockchain ecosystems and sectors like gaming and DeFi.
• Encourages exploration of lesser known dapps based on historical data Enable DappRadar to generate detailed analytical reports for stakeholders, pinpointing where user interest lies.
• Increase demand for RADAR tokens by requiring them for access to certain predictions, potentially attracting new buyers
• Enhance the value of Pro memberships by offering exclusive prediction games and unique insights to Pro NFT owners.

Drawbacks

• ROI of RADAR spent is still yet to be determined - concerns about long term sustainability of rewarding RADAR without guaranteed increase in platform usage or PRO NFT mints.
  • The 6 week pilot should provide a sufficient baseline for site traffic, new wallets holding radar and new PRO NFT mints.
  • In the long term, we can explore including non-monetary rewards in the prize pools, such as a token (created by us) that would only be redeemable for XP on DappRadar. This allows the DAO to better manage costs by leveraging tokenized XP as a reward instead of RADAR.

Future Plans

We ultimately believe the best user experience for DappRadar users is an integrated platform where they can launch and vote on predictions directly within DappRadar. We hope this partnership can be the first step in our ambitions to develop a white-labelled version of our prediction market platform for DappRadar. This version would fit your brand's style and exist as a subdomain on your website. From there, access to participate in or view data from your prediction markets could be made accessible to all DappRadar users or gated to only PRO NFT holders. We would handle all prediction setup, including custom requests from users.